Private Intelligence Agency

Submit a Tip - Secure Form

Tactical Rabbit
International Government Relations Unit Military Affairs Unit




DOI: 2011 to mid-2019

SOURCE: Open source intelligence.


As of mid-2019, the Chinese government’s threats of tariffs and sanctions against US companies engaged in arms sales to Taiwan was deemed to be an intangible warning unlikely to incarnate into any real penalties provided that the US government continue to respect the “One China” doctrine.


On 12 July 2019, the Chinese government announced it planned to impose sanctions against US companies that, as of mid-2019, agreed to sell US $2.2 billion in military weaponry to Taiwan. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the US “not to play with fire on the question of Taiwan” and, by inference, to tread more cautiously around the “One China” policy.

The US $2.2 billion arms deal included 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks, 250 Stinger missiles and related equipment. The principal contractors are Raytheon Missile Systems and General Dynamics Land Systems.

Media-based analysts warn the arms deals may exacerbate already tense, adversarial relations between the US and China: since 2017, the two countries have been caught in fractious disputes on issues from China’s occupation of the South China sea to trade and intellectual property rights violations.

Tactical Rabbit senior analysts have proposed a more reasonable prospect. In the short-term, the sales will add to the current, growing discord. But larger sales have occurred before, matched by similar threats from Beijing, and nothing material resulted. In 2011, the US supplied Taiwan with US $5.8 billion in arms and advanced military equipment; in 2015, US $1.8 billion.

In the past, the US has proceeded with arms sales while adhering to the “One China” policy, thus diplomatically side-stepping a more tangible penalty from China.
Additionally, the US has not acquiesced to every request for arms from Taiwan, again for fear of further riling China. As an example, absent from recent arms sales has been any assistance to modernize or resupply Taiwan’s aging submarine fleet, a move that Tactical Rabbit assesses would provoke a sharper response from Beijing.

Additionally, most of the threats of Chinese sanctions are without teeth, according to Tactical Rabbit analysis. For many years, China has repeatedly threatened to impose punitive tariffs or sanctions on US companies, but Beijing has not provided clarification or followed through. Furthermore, most of the US companies in question would likely be unaffected by such penalties even were they to be imposed since these companies do not engage in trade with China in the first place. In the case of a company like Boeing that does do non-military sales inside China, and thus could be affected by tariffs, Tactical Rabbit believes it is highly unlikely China would take any action to disrupt or impede the supply of (Boeing) aircraft parts and services to Chinese logistics and transportation capabilities.

Everett A. Stern, M.B.A.
Intelligence Director, Tactical Rabbit Former U.S. Senate Candidate /

Tactical Rabbit Inc. always protects the names of its contractors, clients, and sources regardless of circumstances. All activities will be planned and carried out in strict adherence to Intelligence Community Directive 304 (ICD 304), International Trafficking Arms Regulations (ITAR), the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), and all applicable U.S. laws and regulations, including but not limited to all SEC rules and regulations. Tactical Rabbit Inc. is a private intelligence company. Tactical Rabbit is not an investment advisor, accounting firm, law firm, or consumer reporting agency, and does not provide any investment, financial, accounting, legal, or credit advice. Tactical Rabbit Inc. intelligence may NOT be used to make decisions about consumer credit, employers, insurance, tenant screening, or any other purposes that would require FCRA compliance. Tactical Rabbit Inc. does not have any formal affiliation with or connection to the Central Intelligence Agency or the Federal Bureau of Investigation although it may at times contract with former employees of federal agencies. In some cases, Tactical Rabbit Inc. will attempt to facilitate a federal investigation through channels similar to those to which any private citizen has access. Tactical Rabbit Inc. uses the utmost diligence to guard and protect confidential information and trade secrets. In the event that a client contracts with Tactical Rabbit Inc., client information will be kept confidential and not divulged, communicated, or used except to the extent deemed necessary by Tactical Rabbit Inc. in providing services to the client.

Share This